Analysis:
Vista Charts and Historical Analysis
Part I
by Dom Concilio
Part I & Part II
Does history repeat itself? Is there something to MOON PHASES, TRIPLE WITCHING, LUNAR and SOLAR ECLIPSES? What about FOMC DAYS, or WEEKS, or any other possible repetitive/cyclical possibilities you can think of? What of PATTERN RECOGNITION, and PROGRAM TRADING? Is there really anything to all this stuff, or is just another bunch of hocus pocus?
Did you know that, since 1982 (the first year the SP FUTURES started trading), FULL MOON TRADING DAYS in AUG close NEGATIVE 76% of the time? Here are the only times in SP history that the FULL MOON was on a Thursday in August.
Tip: This year the FULL MOON is on
I've invested in the markets for some years now. At one point I was getting a little bored. So a friend of mine suggested that I check out a website www.programtrading.com. It was back in 1997 and I read all this stuff about when the CRASH was coming. The site wrote about some Monday in October, and that it was the Anniversary of the Crash of 29, that it was some color and some moon thing and some other stuff. I said to myself, "sure". October came and guess what? Yes, we did have a market drop of over 7%. And Yes, it was on the date that was mentioned on the website. So I decided to check out one of these Program Trading Seminars.
This is the 5 minute chart of the "CRASH OF '97"
This seminar changed my whole view on things. I proceeded to gather
all types of historical data, and created a database of many things.
There was a problem however, in that I couldn't get
the historical charts to look at all like what I am used to looking at every
day. I spent some time developing this database, but
yet could not apply it in a simple way. The simplest way for me
would be to be able to print out historical charts that would match my existing
real-time software. I've used Ensign Software since
1997, and I have found that there is no better software in the world for
me. It's so easy to use and so easy to
So I set out to create a charting software for
historical data that could do what I wanted it to do. A
software to give me the flexibility for viewing and printing that I
needed.
Is it real, or is it just a random walk?
Expiration Fridays in December close POSITIVE 80% since 1982. That's 16 of 20. Knowing this, wouldn't you want to have a printed chart of every one of them, in your preferred time frame, and it looks just like what you are looking at real time?
These are 2 of the December Expiration Fridays.
Tip: I believe that this year, Expiration Friday is
How about this? When Expiration Friday in
December is on the 15th of the month, (3 times in SP history), there were 3 of the 4 times that a December Expiration Friday closed NEGATIVE.
The HIGH of the morning was
Historical research. It's a lot of fun.
I was on a plane one day with a friend of mine. We were on our way to
another one of these seminars. While we were waiting, I started
doing some research on that particular trading day. I said, "Hey
Tom, look at this. Almost every one of these days sell off after the first hour of trading. Let's call this in". So I called the broker from the plane, and instructed him to
sell some S&Ps at around
That day was
Here's an interesting one. When the First Trading Day of JULY is on a MONDAY, the SP'S have closed POSITIVE 100% of the time. These are just a few of those days.
Part I & Part II
(Editor's note: Dom's article is lengthy, but very intriguing. The balance of his article will be published in the June 2002 issue of the Trading Tips newsletter.)